Asymptote
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Megan-Li Smith

New Zealand · 52 kg class · 22 meets since 2018

Best lifts

Squat
180.0
Bench
114.0
Deadlift
205.0

One side of a 20 kg bar, every disc drawn and coloured by weight, with the collar outermost. Career bests, which may come from different meets.

Peak

Score
123.35

100.0th percentile of scores that year

Heaviest total
490.5 kg

Independent of the score above, and possibly a different meet.

Career

On the strength landscape

What comparable lifters went on to do

Within 1 year: No comparable group exists. The closest 47 athletes span ages 22-37 and scores 112.1-127.3, which is too wide to call a comparison. Refused for the same reason within 2 years.

Within 3 years: No comparable group exists. The 49 closest athletes topped out at 122.3, so none of them scored as high as this. Lifters at this level are too recent for the data to say what came next. Refused for the same reason within 5 and 8 years.

Competing again

  • Within 1 year92%
  • Within 2 years96%
  • Within 3 years97%

The chance of another result, from how lifters in the same situation went on: results so far, time since the last one, age and score. It says nothing about this lifter’s own plans. As of 7 Sept 2026, from a last result on 13 Jun 2026.

Made the same way at the start of 2023 and checked a year later, the forecast ranked who came back well: a returner had the higher chance 85% of the time. Its level was off by 6 points on average — for the least likely tenth it said 5% and 2% came back; for the most likely it said 66% and 77% did.

Attempts

AttemptSquatBenchDeadliftAll lifts
First
95%
20 of 21 · 77%–99%
comparison 95%
95%
20 of 21 · 77%–99%
comparison 95%
82%
18 of 22 · 61%–93%
comparison 96%
91%
58 of 64 · 81%–96%
comparison 96%
Second
90%
19 of 21 · 71%–97%
comparison 90%
95%
20 of 21 · 77%–99%
comparison 87%
95%
21 of 22 · 78%–99%
comparison 90%
94%
60 of 64 · 85%–98%
comparison 89%
Third
90%
19 of 21 · 71%–97%
comparison 71%
62%
13 of 21 · 41%–79%
comparison 63%
73%
16 of 22 · 52%–87%
comparison 60%
75%
48 of 64 · 63%–84%
comparison 65%

Openers, as a share of the heaviest attempt made that day (median over meets):

  • Squat 93% · comparison 93% · 21 meets
  • Bench 95% · comparison 93% · 21 meets
  • Deadlift 92% · comparison 93% · 22 meets

Third attempts, against lifters who took the same jump:

  • Squat19/21
  • Bench13/21
  • Deadlift16/22
  • All lifts48/64

● share made · | expected for the jumps taken · box: the exact range luck alone gives 95% of the time. Violet is above that, red below.

Overall: 48 of 64 made, 37.9 expected. Best estimate once luck is allowed for: about 7.4 more than expected.

−40−200+20+4013103060+third attempts takenmade vs expected (% pts)better than luck explainsworse than luck explains+16 pts · 64 thirds
The ringed dot is this lifter: thirds made above or below expectation, in percentage points per third. Grey bands are where the middle half and middle 80% of all 179,905 lifters sit for that many thirds. Between the coloured lines is what luck alone produces 95% of the time for a typical lifter: wide for a few thirds, narrow for dozens. The dot’s colour uses this lifter’s own thirds, as in the All lifts bar, so right at a line the two can differ. They took 64 thirds, drawn at the right edge.

Expected is each third’s population make rate for that lift, its jump over the second attempt in whole percent, and whether the second was made. The surplus in words is shrunk toward zero by how much lifters really differ, so a few lucky thirds count for little; shrunk this way, a surplus before 2023 carried over to thirds since.

Share of attempts made, with a 95% interval, from 22 meets with recorded attempts. The comparison is every attempt by women whose best score was 110 or more. A high rate can mean careful attempt selection as much as reliability; the rates above do not separate the two, the third-attempt comparison allows for the jump taken.

Lift balance

Squat 65%Bench 55%Deadlift 70%

Squat / bench / deadlift 36 / 23 / 41 at the last full-power meet (13 Jun 2026). Women of this bodyweight and total typically split 35 / 23 / 42.

Closer to typical than 96% of women.

The dot is this lifter; the violet ring is the typical split for their sex, bodyweight and total, which we computed. Each corner is the most that lift’s share reaches in this zoomed triangle.

Every attempt

Squat
Bench
Deadlift

166 of 192 attempts made across 22 meets. White is a good lift, red a miss, outlined an attempt whose outcome was not recorded. Oldest meet on the left.

Meets

DateMeetBodyweightTotalScore
13 Jun 2026World Classic Powerlifting Championships51.8 kg486.5 kg123.25
21 Mar 2026CPA Provincials52.5 kg450.0 kg112.62
19 Nov 2025Oceania Regional Powerlifting Championships52.3 kg490.5 kg123.35
25 Sept 2025New Zealand Powerlifting Open Nationals52.3 kg483.0 kg121.36
14 Aug 2025World Games51.6 kg482.5 kg122.69
8 Jun 2025World Classic Powerlifting Championships51.5 kg477.5 kg121.52
4 Oct 2024Commonwealth Championships51.5 kg466.0 kg118.75
15 Jun 2024World Classic Powerlifting Championships51.6 kg452.5 kg114.93
6 Sept 2023New Zealand Nationals51.8 kg449.5 kg113.97
11 Jun 2023World Classic Powerlifting Championships51.9 kg437.5 kg110.75
28 Nov 2022Commonwealth Championships51.6 kg423.5 kg107.65
1 Aug 2022New Zealand Championships51.9 kg424.5 kg107.44
6 Jun 2022World Classic Powerlifting Championships51.5 kg412.5 kg104.94
9 Apr 2022Canterbury Provincials51.8 kg415.0 kg105.14
14 Mar 2021New Zealand Invitational Championships50.3 kg367.5 kg95.55
6 Oct 2020Nationals46.6 kg350.0 kg97.75
22 Aug 2019Nationals46.9 kg363.0 kg100.94
4 Jun 2019World Classic Powerlifting Championships46.9 kg343.5 kg95.42
16 Feb 2019Canterbury Novice Comp46.8 kg333.0 kg92.80
23 Aug 2018New Zealand Powerlifting Championships49.4 kg310.0 kg81.96
9 Jun 2018South Island Championships48.7 kg300.0 kg80.35
28 Apr 2018Southern Powerlifting Championships48.8 kg277.5 kg74.18